The media is filled with more and more chatter about “deadlines”, “sanctions” and, the oh so ominous “military ‘options’ remaining on the table” regarding the Iranian hobgoblins. The latest hype is that they’re refining their uranium to levels reaching 20% which the media & government would like you to think is one step away from assembling atomic bombs even though the ‘reality’ is that one needs to refine the fuel to an 80% level - a feat requiring years of preparation, according to ALL of our intelligence experts. They also don’t let on that were the united States not blocking their attempted ‘purchase’ of medical isotopes ($75 grand worth on the open market) then the Iranians wouldn’t need to refine their own to 20% to create these medical isotopes.
One might wish to ponder some realities and possibilities regarding the Iranian ‘crisis’ that they won’t tell you. These include the following:
1. Contrary to what the talking heads say and, as I’ve pointed out in a previous piece titled “Beating the War Drums”, Iran is legally entitled, under the non proliferation treaty, to enrich uranium. It’s their Right. Article III, Section 3 of the treaty states: “The safeguards required by this article shall be implemented in a manner designed to comply with article IV of this Treaty, and to avoid hampering the economic or technological development of the Parties... of peaceful nuclear activities, including... the processing, use or production of nuclear material for peaceful purposes in accordance with the provisions this article” The fact is, Iran has more than complied with every provision of the treaty and then some.
2. The West (us) wants to stop them from “processing” their own fuel (even though it is their Right as stated above) by handing over their raw uranium in exchange for fuel rods. We want them to ship their uranium to France after which France promises, at some point, to ship fuel rods back. Iran has agreed to exchange raw fuel for fuel rods BUT, where the French have stiffed them in the past in this regard, they want the exchange to take place on Iranian soil so they can be sure to actually ‘get’ the promised fuel rods. That’s (apparently) not good enough although I can’t see why not. Were you ripped off before, might you be cautious?
3. The media, in beating the war drums, would have us believe the Iranian President is some pseudo nazi crackpot that will cause another holocaust or war which, apparently by itself is a reason to bomb Iran. The fact is, the guy is an ex-college professor and his job (President) doesn’t give him ANY control of foreign policy, ANY control of the armed forces or ANY control of their nuclear industry. Jumping up & down about Ahmadinejad is like worrying about our Secretary of Commerce starting World War 3 without the help of the Pentagon. Unlike its neighbors (or us), Iran hasn’t attacked ANYONE in over two hundred years...
We might bluster that we’re "the world's sole military superpower" but the fact is there are plenty of nations out there that, if attacked, might make life quite difficult for the US and its military; Iran is one of them. If we (or another country with our blessing), attack Iran, it will not be pretty; they aren’t likely to roll over like Saddam did. ‘Persians’ being more like Germans than arabs, will very likely shoot back, and if they do their Sunburn missiles travel at Mach 2.1 and can not, according to any defense analysts, be defended against by our Navy’s countermeasures. Therefore, any warship within 100 miles of the Iranian coast could likely be swept from the Gulf at the first sign they are under attack. Since they also have the air launched version of this missile (Kh-41 Moskit), any warship along the Gulf’s 615 mile length may also likely be sunk and its crew sharkbait.
Ponder how many Carriers might be in the Gulf or within range of their fighters when this starts? Each Carrier battle group varies but they generally consist of: 1 carrier (crew of 5,100) and its air wing, 2 guided missile cruisers (crew of 370 each), 3 guided missile destroyers (300 each), 1-2 nuclear attack submarine, one or more frigates or other smaller ships, and support vessels. Since we average two Carrier battle groups in and around the Gulf, we’re looking at, quite possibly, well over ten thousand of our military at the bottom of what is, essentially, an Iranian lake turned killing field.
Let’s do the math. Not counting the human losses (our kids, fathers, mothers), replacing those carriers will cost taxpayers 11 Billion in today’s dollars & each aircraft lost (usually 65 aircraft per carrier but sometimes 70-80) will cost around 35 million a pop. So, the price tag to the taxpayers within the first 48 hours of the sneak attack could total 26 billion, 550 million dollars in hardware without even considering the loss of missile cruisers, missile destroyers, frigates, support vessels or other ‘allied’ warships in the Gulf when this ballon goes up, all of which could be at the bottom of the Gulf.
Grim? It hasn’t begun to get grim. Even were Iran’s hundreds of thousands of Revolutionary Guards, to stay out of the fight (unlikely) there are a minimum of 945,000 ‘active duty’ regular army troops in the Iranian force structure that might opt for the short drive across their borders looking for the 97,000 or so US troops stationed in Iraq or the 70,000 in Afghanistan. How are over 5 to 1 odds sounding? Were that the case, as supplies and ammunition run out (no resupply through the Gulf), our folks would be circling the wagons pretty quick, which brings to mind when the German Sixth Army found themselves surrounded then captured at Stalingrad, it resulted in the ‘disappearance’ of 95% of the 100,000 prisoners taken. They never came home. Our folks could experience a similar fate, since, with regard to the treatment of POWs, we’ve thrown the Geneva Convention under a bus. As such, I might be rather concerned about any forces (our kids, fathers, mothers) captured within the region after any sneak attack on Iran.
Perhaps the potential of these kinds of losses (for whatever reason) doesn’t scare you. Think about this then: Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor has 82 tons of enriched uranium (U235) now loaded into it having a half life of 700 million years. The 1981 study in Scientific American on “Catastrophic Releases of Radioactivity” estimated that bombing a nuclear reactor would cause 8600 square miles around the reactor to be uninhabitable. Putting a few bunker busters through Bushehr’s containment vessel & reactor core will mean half of the world’s oil is instantly inaccessible. This is just one power station. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimated 3 million deaths would result in 3 weeks merely by bombing Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities near Esfahan by itself. The fallout would cover Afghanistan, Pakistan, all the way to India and Europe (as in 2003 merely from the use of depleted uranium munitions) when the English noted a 300% increase in U235 within Britain just nine days after hostilities broke out.
Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities (even with conventional weapons) will unleash enough radioactive fallout in the region to seriously impact, if not wipe out our own oil supplies located there. Leaving aside the millions of dead and dying, this means that Joe & Jane Sixpack will not be driving cars any where, any more, for a long, long time. Mechanized farming, petroleum based fertilizer and food transport will be finished. Famine in the united States would be likely. Food riots will be a certainty with our national fuel gauge on empty. An economic collapse unimagined by Americans could well follow. The American Way of Life might be effectively finished.
The architects of this adventure are the same folks who brought you the ‘rescue’ of New Orleans after Katrina and the “Saddam had nuclear bombs” story and it’s continued by those who promised us “change” from the last guys. They insist Iran shouldn’t be allowed to pursue their Rights under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty which every other signatory is allowed to do & to which the Iranians are currently in full compliance with. The potential for ten thousand (US service) casualties, $28 BILLION dollars in lost military equipment, to say nothing of what might happen in the two countries (Iraq/Afghanistan) bordering Iran, where our ground forces will be easily targeted right out of the gate, and a potential full-scale economic collapse, certainly sounds like a plan to me. How about you?
Don’t forget to lay in a larger supply of these:
Christopher T. Sununu
Mike J. Cryans
Russell E Prescott
Theodore L. Gatsas
Debora B. Pignatelli
Click on the above photos to read about each of our council members.